May 11, 2021

TA: Bitcoin Remains At Risk, Why $38K Holds The Key For Fresh Surge

Bitcoin Price

Bitcoin price is struggling to gain momentum above $37,500 and $37,800 against the US Dollar. BTC could decline again if it breaks the $36,000 support zone.

  • Bitcoin is facing a strong resistance near the $37,800 and $38,000 resistance levels.
  • The price is now trading just above the $36,500 support and the 100 hourly simple moving average.
  • There is a key contracting triangle forming with support near $36,100 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
  • The pair must clear the $38,000 resistance to start a fresh surge in the near term.

Bitcoin Price is Facing Uphill Task

After a decent close above $35,000, bitcoin price started a fresh upward move. BTC broke the $35,500 and $36,000 resistance levels to move into a short-term bullish zone.

The price even spiked above the $37,000 level and settled above the 100 hourly simple moving average. However, the price is still facing a strong resistance near the $37,800 and $38,000 resistance levels. A high is formed near $37,294 and the price is currently correcting lower.

There was a break below the $36,800 level. An initial support on the downside is near the $36,500 level and 100 hourly simple moving average. The next support is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent recovery from the $35,407 low to $37,294 high.

Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

There is also a key contracting triangle forming with support near $36,100 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. The triangle support is close to the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the recent recovery from the $35,407 low to $37,294 high.

If there is a downside break below the triangle support, bitcoin price might continue to move down. The next major support is near the $34,800 level, where the bulls are likely to take a stand.

Chances of an Upside Break in BTC

If bitcoin stays above the $36,500 and $36,100 support levels, it could make another attempt to clear the $37,500 and $37,800 resistance levels.

The main resistance is still near the $38,000 zone. A close above the $38,000 zone is must for the price to start a strong surge in the coming sessions.

Technical indicators:

Hourly MACD – The MACD is slowly losing momentum in the bullish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now well above the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $36,500, followed by $36,100.

Major Resistance Levels – $37,250, $37,800 and $38,000.